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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and daughter Kim Ju-ae watch the nighttime military parade in Pyongyang’s Kim Il-sung Square held for the 75th founding anniversary of the Korean People’s Army on Feb. 8 hand in hand with his daughter Kim Ju-ae. (KCNA/Yonhap)

South Korean Minister of Unification Kwon Young-se responded to speculation that Kim Ju-ae is being groomed to take over for her father, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, by stressing that it was “still too early” to see her as a potential successor.

Appearing on the CBS radio network on Monday, Kwon noted, “To begin with, Kim Jong-un is around 40 years old now.”

“Also, the reality is that the North Korean regime has aspects of a male-centered society that is much more patriarchal than ours. So even if they have started now to develop a succession framework, questions remain as to whether this female would be able to direct North Korea’s military-centered regime,” he continued.

At the same time, he added, “It’s clear at any rate that they’re definitely planning to have a fourth-generation of power transfer.”

Kwon’s remarks are drawing particular attention at a time when experts have also been divided recently on whether Kim Ju-ae will inherit power from her father.

In an analysis submitted on Sunday to the news source SNP, Lim Eul-chul, a professor at the Kyungnam University Institute for Far Eastern Studies, said there was “nowhere near enough evidence yet to conclude that [Pyongyang] is at the stage of designating Kim Ju-ae as a successor.”

In remarks the same day, Cheong Seong-chang, director of the unification strategy research office at the Sejong Institute, disputed Lim’s argument and called for an open discussion on the matter.

“If Kim Ju-ae is nothing more than a ‘political propaganda prop’ or a ‘mascot for events,’ are the key officials or members of the public going to understand Kim Jong-un placing a ‘political propaganda prop’ or ‘event mascot’ in the seat he should be occupying at official events?” he asked.

Remarking on the possibility that Kim’s oldest child might be a son, Kwon said, “If the last member of the Paektu bloodline is female, it’s a bit of a different story.”

“There has been circumstantial evidence to speculate on the existence of [an older child], but nothing that would allow us to draw definite conclusions,” he added.

Kwon also offered his analysis of the factors behind North Korea’s test launch of a Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Feb. 18.

“With their warning that tensions might rise if we continue to maintain a hard line and pursue peace through force, they were trying to influence South Korean opinion to accomplish different objectives by getting the administration to change its unification policies or North Korean policies,” he suggested.

Commenting on the possibility of another Hwasong-15 test launch at a regular angle, he said, “The US is also very likely to view that very much as an existential threat.”

“There may also be cases where it passes by the Japanese archipelago, and Japan is not going to take that lying down,” he added.

“I think it’s absolutely essential that we prepare for multiple possibilities,” he continued.

He went on to predict that a seventh nuclear test by North Korea is still in the realm of possibility.

“North Korea has been maintaining third and fourth tunnels at [nuclear test site] Punggye Village in a constant state of readiness,” he observed.

“We’re much better off preparing for the real possibility rather than concluding this is just for show,” he added.

By Shin Hyeong-cheol, staff reporter

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