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North Korea’s nuclear test site in Punggye Village

For several days now, bustling activity has been detected at North Korea’s nuclear test site at Punggye Village in North Hamgyong Province. North Korea could play the nuclear test card in the run-up to the first summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Apr. 6-7. China’s Defense Ministry has announced plans to respond harshly to the deployment of the THAAD missile defense system.

On Mar. 30, 38 North, an American website specializing in North Korean affairs, reported that an analysis of commercial satellite images taken on Mar. 28 had found one vehicle and a large number of people (between 70 and 100) standing in formation in the main administrative area of the nuclear test site at Punggye Village, Kilju County, North Hamgyong Province. The website said that this was the first time since Jan. 4, 2013 that people had been seen standing together like this. Just over a month later, on Feb. 12, North Korea carried out its third nuclear test. The previous day, 38 North reported that three or four vehicles had been sighted at the North Portal (the second tunnel), and that there was also evidence that communication cables had been laid there. The North Portal is where four previous nuclear tests have taken place.

North Korea’s language has also become more strident. The previous day, Pyongyang mobilized its state-run media to defend the legitimacy of its possession of nuclear weapons, and now it is also using government bodies to make provocative . “If war breaks out now on the Korean Peninsula, the blame for that war, regardless of who strikes first, will be placed on the US, which has not contented itself with constantly toughening its policy of hostility toward North Korea, but has also stirred up a hornet’s nest by bringing in countless nuclear assets and special operation methods,” North Korea’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement by the spokesperson released late in the evening of Mar. 29.
By flirting with the option of a nuclear test, North Korea is sending a political message to the outside world, some analysts say. “The North Koreans know when commercial satellites are passing overhead and typically try to avoid activities during that time. The fact these formations can be seen suggests that Pyongyang is sending a political message that the sixth nuclear test will be conducted soon. Alternatively, it may be engaged in a well-planned game of brinkmanship,” 38 North said.
It’s too early to tell whether North Korea will actually carry out a nuclear test, and if so, when it will do so. “North Korea has already done several nuclear tests. If it tests a nuclear device at this point in time, it has hardly anything to gain on a technical level, and it has much more to lose on a political and diplomatic level. It appears unlikely that North Korea will carry out a nuclear test in the near future,” said Kim Yeon-cheol, professor at Inje University.
“The US has not yet finished its review of its North Korea policy. Pyongyang’s point of view is that it needs to pressure the US to add the North Korean nuclear program to its policy priorities. The same applies to ensuring that the North is not ignored during the upcoming US-China summit,” said Kim Dong-yeop, a professor at the Kyungnam University Institute for Far Eastern Studies.
“It’s likely that the actual nuclear test will take place after June, when the US finishes its review of its North Korea policy,” Kim added.
The South Korean military is sticking to formulaic statements, explaining that they are “closely following” North Korea’s movements. “We believe that North Korea can carry out a nuclear test whenever its leaders make up their minds to do so,” said Colonel No Jae-cheon, chief of communications for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, during a briefing on Mar. 30.
By Park Byong-su, senior staff writer and Jung In-hwan, staff reporter
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